Early polling tells you almost nothing about presidential nomination battles, since it ends up almost exclusively telling you about name recognition. Early media buzz is similar. People like to read stories about figures they’ve already heard of, and it’s easier to write stories about politicians you’ve already covered.
But you don’t need to be a celebrity to win a nomination, you just need to be known — and liked — by the network of elected officials, operatives, donors, and ideological activists who make up a modern political party. And that’s why I think a not-so-famous politician is actually the guy with the best shot at being the GOP’s candidate in 2016.
Meet Indiana governor and former House member Mike Pence. Here’s why his chances of being the next Republican nominee for president are excellent.
1) Mike Pence fits the bill
(MikePence.com)
(MikePence.com)
The baseline criteria for becoming a major party presidential nominee is that you have to be the kind of person a major party would nominate for president. Lots of other people participate in debates, do well in occasional polls, and even might win some votes in primaries. But to be the nominee, you have to be like a nominee. And Pence certainly fits the bill — governor of a state is about the most common nominee out there, and his past congressional experience means he’s known to DC players. In his congressional days, he made regular media appearances and (unlike, say, Sarah Palin) is prepared to talk about a range of policy issues and field questions from the national press.
2) Mike Pence has avoided controversy
(No Labels)
(No Labels)
Voters continue to dislike partisan controversy. Presidential aspirants invariably get juice from the idea of somehow floating beyond or above the grubby partisan contentiousness they associate with Washington. Small details like the extent to which your bipartisan dealmaking depended on the existence of an unusually liberal state-level GOP in your state (Obama in Illinois) or an unusually conservative state-level Democratic Party (George W. Bush in Texas) are best brushed over.
As polarization has progressed, that kind of faux-bipartisanship is harder to pull off. Pence has the next best thing, though. Indiana is a sufficiently Republican-dominated state that he’s managed to govern without any high-profile clashes with the Democrats. By contrast, Republican governors in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio have all gotten embroiled in weird procedural wrangling with Democratic legislatures over anti-union moves.
As of September 25, Pence’s Wikipedia page’s controversies section only names one controversy — “During Pence’s first term as the 50th Governor of Indiana, he was criticized for censoring comments on his official government Facebook page.” LOL. He’ll do.
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