TYT Hour 2 June 12, 2018

In The Young Turks Hour 2 - On Demand by Waldo Peterson31 Comments

Ana Kasparian, Brett Erlich, Mark Thompson. Independent mortgage lenders creating unsustainable housing bubble. AT&T cleared to merge with Time Warner. Trade advisor Peter Navarro backtracks on Trudeau comments. Severe health violations at immigration detention centers.

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  1. I hope Cenk’s absence is due to his taking time off to attend a crash course in How To Read Polls.

    Worse than his inability to understand a simple poll was his deliberate choice to deceive the TYT audience.

    1) Inability to understand a simple poll:

    32% were Undecided, so Cenk said that meant “anything could happen!” and Alison Hartson could still make it to the top two. LUDICROUS. Look at the damn poll he was citing — only 9% of Republicans were decided, whereas Republicans make about 40% of voters in primaries. 40-9 = 31 %. So nearly ALL the Undecideds were Republicans, which explains why so many GOP candidates beat Alison Hartson. Cenk couldn’t figure this out. Worse, he was asking people for MONEY right up until the day of the election, on the grounds that Hartson could still make it to the run-off.

    2) Deliberate choice to deceive the TYT audience:

    4 of 5 most recent polls had Hartson at 1% or less. Only one poll had her at 4% — so that was the poll that Cenk talked about on the show, and he never mentioned the other 4 polls. He continued to talk (and beg for money) as if she had a real chance to win, right up until election night results showed her being beaten by a whole slew of REPUBLICANS.

    What do you call someone who does not mention the existence of the 4 out of 5 polls that have results he does not like, and only chooses to cite the one outlier poll that is slightly more favorable to his preferred candidate?

    1. I understand you’re upset about Hartson’s loss, but remember Cenk (and some other TYTers) were sounding alarm bells about the 2016 polls that said Hillary was a lock… If you really think Cenk was deliberately attempting to deceive people, you might as well drop your membership. See yuh, bye.

      Or if you’ve watched/listened for years, you’ll realize that Cenk is rather child-like (though not childish) in his hopes about the uber-progressive wave. It’s human nature, people get too close and blinded to the reality… He got his hopes up way too high re: Hartson. It’s the same as all his Whisper of a dream monologues about Bernie becoming president, money out of politics, etc… Cenk’s strength is breaking down complex politics into simple slogans and comprehensible ideas, but sometimes the ideas end up way too simplified…

      1. So basically what you’re saying is that we shouldn’t trust Cenk’s take on any elections or who has a chance in the elections cuz he’s too child-like to see things clearly? This Hartson race wasn’t an idea that ended up too simplified, Cenk out right told us all the way to election day that Hartson had a real chance of making into the run-off so we should be donating our money & time to her campaign. I feel like that was a major breach in trust on Cenk’s part no matter how you want to sugar coat it.

      2. “I understand you’re upset about Hartson’s loss” — nope, I’m glad she lost. She did not deserve to win.

        The day Cenk announced her, I donated $27 to Hartson, and began a recurring donation via Act Blue to her campaign. I worked very hard to canvas for her for many months. I coordinated an agreement between our county’s Berniecrats group and our county’s Democratic Central Committee to co-host a meet-the-candidate event for Hartson. We would rent the venue, put ads in newspapers, send email invite to 1000’s of registered Democrats in our county, and provide everything need for the event to succeed. All the Hartson campaign needed to do was for her to show up at our event. Just pick a date. Any date. Give us 2-3 weeks notice, and we’ll provide you with publicity and a great opportunity to meet hundreds of new voters in person.

        I spoke with the Northern California field coordinator for Hartson’s campaign for an hour on the phone, trying to explain this simple concept — but he could not wrap his brain around it. Literally. It was like talking to a backward child. A fantastic event that would have raised awareness of her to 100’s, potentially 1000’s of people in our area never happened, because her staff was CLUELESS.

        Further interactions with the Hartson campaign solidified my realization that it was an amateur clusterfuck. They had no one on staff who knew what they were doing. Period.

        Later Cenk admitted Hartson was “her own campaign manager.” Confirming my theory of Amateur Hour. Running a campaign is a real goddamn job. What kind of idiot thinks she can run for US Senate with no professional, experienced help?

        I did not want Feinstein to be given the gift of a Republican opponent in November, therefore when it became apparent that KDL was the only Democrat running a decent competitive campaign, I switched my support to him.

        Oh, and thanks for the invite to drop my membership, oh Sanctimonious One. LOL.

        1. Thank you for that additional perspective and post-mortem. I’m glad to hear that the loss was due to “amateur hour” reasons than due to a lack of interest in the actual policy/philosophy. Interestingly enough, thats the best news for californian progressives to hear.

          I would wager that that sort of incompetence is spread nationwide across progressive campaigns. All of the experienced people are in it for the money, not because of ideals. There will need to be AT LEAST one wave of costly learning experiences before the wave crashes over corporatism.

          If you are an experienced person in this regard, I hope you will advertise your services as someone who can teach those lessons in a less painful manner than additional lost terms.

      3. “if you’ve watched/listened for years” — since 2003, thank you very much, Sanctimonious One.

          1. Unfortunately you just sound grumpy. I am sorry but to talk to an hour to someone an blame them for being clueless is hubris. How about, couldn’t you explain the “simple concept’ yourself clearly so that a “simpleton” can undertand it? Clearly not. you are not so gifted with eloquence as it is obvious in your endless rants here. Saltiness has nothing to do with it.

      4. True, Cenk simplifies cometimes but hey, the essence of slogans is simplicity, isn’t it?

        In regards to that debincal lady..yeah, go away why don’t you with your shallow comments, every day on and on..Aren’t you tired already? I know I am and I am no longer reading what she puts out there once I see she posted it

        1. Don’t worry about me. I was very busy leading up to June 5 working on a long-shot campaign against a favored establishment candidate who outspent us 10-1… and we still won with 60% of the vote.

          Proof in the pudding, baby.

    2. Not to disagree with the substance your point, but your math is wrong. If roughly 90% of the 40% subset is undecided, that would actually translate to about 36% of the total, not 31%. In which case, something must be wrong with the numbers.

    3. I’ll point out that your post has nothing to do with this video so this whole thing is a bit out of left field. I hope you realize that you’re so salty that’s it’s affecting your analysis of the situation to the point that you feel the need to complain about it well after the fact.

      Of course Cenk can read a poll. He was one of the few people that said Trump could win and was literally laughed at on CNN for saying it. That being said, he’s human and got too emotionally invested in the thought of Hartson’s winning that he had blinders on. Last Wednesday’s post game when he talked about it it was clear that he was down about it and really believed she could win. I think most of us knew that it was a long shot at best.

      He cited the poll that had Alison at 4% because it was the LATEST poll closest to the election so it’s more relative and up-to-date than the previous polls. Stop claiming a conspiracy by saying that he intentionally omitted older polling data to deceive the TYT audience. Your saltiness is strong here since Alison didn’t accept your invite during her campaign. Stop trying to project an ill-intent on Cenk that he was intentionally trying to deceive the audience. Implying some conspiracy that he knew and believed Alison had no chance but was asking people for money anyway. It’s crystal clear that he genuinely believed that she could get second place and maybe she could have if her campaign was better managed. Frankly, I believe the system is so rigged that unless you have at least a million dollars, MSM backing, or name recognition, you basically can’t win no matter what for US Senate in CA due to the large size and population of the state.

      The “anything could happen” comment. You’re omitting the part the the latest poll had Alison at 4% and DeLeon at 6 % and the margin of error was 4.2%.

      The poll data for reference:
      https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-ca-5-24-pr.pdf

      So while unlikely, if Alison was higher than predicated and DeLeon was lower than predicated she statistically could have won based on this poll. That’s not deception. That’s reading a poll. The latest poll… If there was a huge youth voter turnout maybe Alison could have gotten 2nd. But for some reason while people hate the establishment they still will vote for the incumbent most of the time without looking at other candidates or their voting records. And despite a lot of anger out there among millennial over the status quo, most did not vote yet again. When I talk to other millennials the vast majority are apolitical and they look at me funny when I tell them why it’s important. They won’t even vote for local ballot measures stating their vote means nothing.

      The majority simply don’t care to do anything to actually change the system. They’ve given up on it. They focus on trying to personally make their lives as good as possible while ignoring the system’s corruption because they feel it’s hopeless and they can’t do anything about it. The TYT audience is kind of in it’s own bubble and we are engaged and care but most are not. I’ve still never encountered a person here in the Central Valley who has even heard of TYT. That’s telling.

      32% undecided. You can read through the Emerson poll I put a link to and it does not mention political affiliation breakdown in the undecided vote, but I’ll assume you’re correct and that you got that info from a different poll. You’re implying that all Republicans would vote Republican but Alison has video examples of converting Republicans over to her side because of her stance of getting money out of politics and over systemic corruption. While most Republicans will only look for that (R) next to a candidate’s name some actually will look and listen to what a candidate is actually fighting for and what their policy positions are. The truth is that second place was a toss up and no one knew how it would turn out, hence “anything could happen.”

      TL;DR – Your entire premise omits that fact that Cenk was putting more empathizes on the LATEST poll! That’s not deception that’s reading a poll… Stop trying to smear Cenk with a conspiracy that he was intentionally trying to deceive the TYT audience just because you’re salty that Alison didn’t accept your invite.

      1. very clever word-smithing — “Alison did not accept your invite” makes it seem like a petty personal thing — bravo for being good at deceiving people with words.

        Over the course of past several weeks I have provided many examples derived first-hand of the amateur incompetence of the Hartson campaign.

        The failure to recognize the value of participating in a forum organized, paid for and publicized by a county’s Berniecrats and Democratic Party which would have introduced hundreds of voters to Hartson is just one of many examples. The Haartson campaign wasted time and resources doing things that were not helpful to her candidacy, and failed to do things that would have been invaluable to her candidacy. Like, show up at the state convention.

        This was all due to Hartson’s initial foundational failure to hire experienced campaign staff. 2000 volunteers are wonderful, but without good management… not effective.

        Cenk’s “apology” in the June 6 post game is nothing less than Trumpian. Go back and read the comments I made there at that time.

        I agree that Cenk had blinders on. Big, big blinders. We all love his child-like enthusiasm, but for me, this was a huge wake-up call, in that he was not merely childishly focused on his heart’s desire… he 100% lost all ability to think rationally. That is one heck of an Achilles’ heel. While TYT will continue to be a news source I visit daily, I now know that Cenk himself is not a reliable source of information, and will require vigorous cross checking before believing anything he says. Got it.

        The poll identified who was committed to each candidate. 9% of voters were committed to two of the Republicans, while 32% of voters were Undecided. In past primaries, Republicans have made up at least 40% of the vote. Therefore it stands to reason that nearly all of that 32% were Republicans waiting to decide which GOP to vote for. The possibility that a large number of those Republican voters would go for Hartson was absurdly unlikely.

        My primary beef with Cenk in the last week was that he was still begging for money on the grounds that Hartson could win (2nd place). His childishly obsessive delusional desire for his candidate to win was driving him to beg people who cannot afford it to give more money to an utterly lost cause.

        Which poll was more recent was moot when the emerson poll came out about the same time as others. In NO previous broadcast did Cenk ever cite any of the polls that had Hartson at 1% or less. Never mentioned those stats. Never. Yes, his motivation may have been pure childish blindness, but that does not make it right, when he masquerades under the mantle of being a so-called journalist or news person.

        The only poll number he ever mentioned on air was the one poll that had Hartson at 4%. If he had ever mentioned any other poll, that would give him more credence, but he never did. A motivation of pure childishness does not make it better. He proved he is no journalist, that is for sure.

        1. Why should a campaign be judged by “professionalism?” Isn’t it about the issues? Or you just want something flashy and competent, oh yeah..Well, good luck debincal, enjoy your status quo

  2. America as a whole and as an idea is dead. Ultimate goal is to save up enough money and get out of dodge before the shit hits the fan.

  3. Peter Navarro should have just strongly deny that he ever said and that would be good enough for Trump! Tape of it live on air at CNN? FAKE NEWS! Peter Navarro is WEAK and PATHETIC for apologizing (at least that’s what Trump will say).

    Look, immigration problems and our defenses to them shouldn’t stop at the border – that’s stupid. We should start by looking at the (really) shithole countries that these people are fleeing like Honduras and sanction them until the leadership suffers enough that they’ll fix their own countries or at the least prevent their citizens from leaving to illegally immigrate to the USA. Each country should have to keep it’s own citizens in line. We’ve already been doing humanitarian aid and such things and it ISN’T WORKING! There ARE real limits as to how many immigrants any one country can take – the EU is now overrun with refugees to the point where even Germany is saying “no more please”. Do we want our country ruined because some other country is already ruined? Then we can’t help ANYONE, others who need money, food, or medical relief efforts from us OR immigrants looking for a better life.

  4. The movie The Big Short, about the 2008 housing bubble crash, warned everyone – it will happen again soon.

  5. Did I miss it…did they cover Kudlow having a heart attack?
    Did they cover Ro Khanna fucking Justice Dems to support a Corporate Incumbent in NY?

    1. Did they cover how one of their own, Jimmy Dore, was treated at the freedom forum in Norway?
      Did they cover the SCOTUS ruling in favor of the fucked up Ohio voter purge laws?
      Lol just too much Trump stuff to endlessly drone on about. I get the NK situation is important & should be talked about but so are a lot of other situations around the world & here in the good old USA. This is what $20million from Wall Street & one of investors on the TYT board gets you I guess.

      1. I believe they briefly covered the Jimmy Dore treatment at the freedom forum in Norway on a previous TYT. But yeah…they are missing a lot of coverage on a lot of other things that doesn’t have Trumps name in it or regarding the NK Summit. If you haven’t already, I highly suggest listening to Secular Talk with Kyle Kulinski, he usually does super shows of about 2-2&1/2 hours long covering everything everyone is listing on here that TYT is missing. Don’t get me wrong, I enjoy TYT a lot and always listen and watch them on a day to day basis but when I want more overall coverage and better international coverage, other independent outlets are my go-to. Plus Secular Talk is free :)

        1. I know I forgot about the SCOTUS ruling being covered but I am fairly certain that TYT main show hasn’t talked about Jimmy being verbally assaulted at the Freedom Forum. Ron Placone mentioned it briefly on the last AP(5/29/18) but no details as it was coming from some texts Jimmy had sent Ron. I definitely watch Secular Talk but haven’t had a chance to watch his recent uploads yet. It feels like anymore I have to go elsewhere to get anything not Trump related. Was recently told to watch Jimmy’s interview w/Progressive Soapbox(Jamarl Thomas), it was very good. They discussed not only Jimmy’s treatment at the Freedom Forum but also Jimmy’s relationship w/TYT(though I feel like Jimmy was vague in his answers about TYT’s direction). Started watching Jamarl’s interview w/Abby Martin, so far so good too. Really feels like TYT is becoming MSM more & more every day. Today’s first hour was full of establishment talking points, so disappointing.

    2. I wish I could go back in time to revoke all my Act Blue contributions to Ro Khanna.

      I will send him an email formally requesting a refund.

    1. Just to comment it’s today’s Hour Two in the thumbnail, but as of 1:27 EDT yesterday’s hour two in the link.

      Seriously…*sigh* c’mon TYT.

      1. Hey there, just checking in on this — should be up to date now. Let us know if you’re seeing otherwise. Thanks!

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